Séminaire IPGS
Intervenant : Masumi Yamada, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University
Titre : Earthquake Early Warning in Japan:Performance after the Tohoku earthquake and the improvement confirmer
Lieu : EOST, 5 rue Descartes, Amphi Rothé
Résumé : Current earthquake early warning (EEW) systems lack the ability to appropriately handle multiple concurrent earthquakes, which led to many false alarms during the 2011 Tohoku earthquake sequence in Japan.
This paper uses a Bayesian probabilistic approach to handle multiple concurrent events for EEW. We improved the model to estimate earthquake parameters, i.e., hypocenter location, origin time, magnitude and
seismic intensity, by using extra information which is not used before. Then, the sequential Monte Calro method is used to estimate the earthquake parameters. A real data example based on two months data (March 9 to April 30, 2011) around the time of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake is studied to verify the proposed algorithm. Our algorithm
results in over 90% improvement compared to the existing EEW system.